Paul Kedrosky notes that the AI labs have implicitly given up on their current technology leading to AGI. But they are still hoping a breakthrough they don’t yet have will do it: continuous learning. Kedrosky quotes a Bloomberg piece [Paywall] that quotes a youtube interview of Sam Altman: I think we’ll start to get to […]
Felice Kincannon
Felice Kincannon was my boss, my mentor, and a friend. She passed away in April of this year. Felice shied away from publicity, so there is little written about her. If she knew I was writing this she would have sternly, flatly told me not to. But she also never got the recognition she deserved, […]
How to Invest in AI
I’ve been a huge fan of Patrick O’Shaughnessy since I was on his Invest Like the Best podcast. Patrick asks good questions and, in a world that now abounds with answers, the most valuable people are the ones who can ask the best questions. Back in May, Patrick asked me an interesting question: where is […]
A Look at Growth
I do not see how one can look at [growth] figures like these without seeing them as representing possibilities. Is there some action a government of India could take that would lead the Indian economy to grow like Indonesia’s or Egypt’s? If so, what, exactly? If not, what is it about the ‘nature of India’ […]
The Illusion of Acceleration
Is the rate of adoption of new things getting faster and faster and if so, is this an exogenous feature of technology? I argue the rate of adoption is cyclical and, while fast today for some products, this is neither a good thing for entrepreneurs nor predictive of the rate of adoption in the future.
Resignation letter
I am no longer investing in new companies.
Discount rates in venture backed startups
For some ten years I have advised students in my entrepreneurship class to use a 40% discount rate in their lifetime value calculations. Every semester someone decides to take advice they found on the internet and use a much lower rate. It does seem like, of the advice given, mine is at the high end. […]
Founder vs Investor
The book I wrote with Liz Zalman has been released! We chose an unusual format: we take specific times and events in the life of a startup, times that can cause conflict between founders and investors, and we each give our views on them. We disagree. A lot. We’ve gotten a lot of feedback. Some […]
AI and the Structure of Reasoning
Generative AIs can do some things better than people: they can code faster in many instances, they can write junior high school level essays faster, they can create detailed images on demand no matter what the demand, and they can write a mediocre sonnet about whatever you want. But it’s still obvious that human intelligence […]
Spring 2023 Syllabus
I have always found value in other teachers’ syllabi. I was reminded of this when Henrik Berglund recently shared his excellent syllabus with me. In case anyone else feels the same, here is my current one. I last posted a syllabus four years ago. Much changed during the pandemic. Most notably—at the instigation of Noelle, […]