I love a good argument. I’m still waiting for one.
The Insider keeps insisting they’re right about the coming online ad implosion that the mortgage crisis will cause. But they can’t cite a shred of evidence. Their latest post says that the online ad slowdown of the first half of the year is evidence that Countrywide’s current liquidity problems are having an effect. Because, you know, online media buyers can time-travel.
Here’s some real data. My friends over at the top SEM firm in the country, who know more about CPC than anyone outside of some dimly lit basement room in the Googleplex, tell me that mortgage-related keyword CPCs are essentially unchanged from the beginning of the year through last week.
I’ll also note that the top sponsored result when I type “mortgage” into Google is Countrywide.
Another friend in the mortgage lead generation business tells me that business is booming for him, although in purchase leads, not subprime or refi.
What does this mean? To me it says that ad spending in mortgage has remained constant but that there’s a shift away from the high-margin mortgage products to the vanilla. Countrywide will suffer, as will the other mortgage purveyors, from reduced profit margins, but Google et al will not.
The Insider prefers to look at the big picture, while I prefer to read tea leaves. Time will tell.