Venture Follow-on and the Kelly Criterion

EDIT, 6/20/17: Kelly justified betting a larger amount of your bankroll when you have a larger informational advantage. But the Kelly Criterion itself imagines a specific scenario: sequential parlay betting when you have an edge. Since venture investing is never really sequential (the ‘bet’ is not immediately resolved) and only angel investors really parlay, it […]

On being special in the venture business

Chris Douvos, one of the smartest fund-of-funds guys, once asked me the three questions he asks people who are raising a VC fund for the first time. The third was: “what makes you so special?” I was stumped. I couldn’t think of an answer. I figured I’d come back to the process once I did. That […]

AR will be startup dominated, VR will not

[I really meant to write this in a longer post because it’s arguable and I like to argue. But while this is timely because of the excitement around Pokemon Go, I’m working on something else and only had a few minutes to put it down. Not sure why I’m apologizing for not giving you another 25-page, […]

Disruption is not a strategy

I was at a research lab to talk about commercialization. The presenter put up a slide of some exciting new technologies. The slide’s tagline said these technologies would “disrupt the biomedical industry.” My first thought was that disrupting the biomedical industry–“to interrupt by causing a disturbance” or “to drastically alter or destroy the structure of something”–is probably the exact […]

VCdelta now part of Mattermark

I built the @VCdelta twitterbot five years ago to solve a problem. I needed to keep on top of the companies the firms I respected most were investing in. The obvious way to do that was to keep track of the firms’ portfolio pages. I found it really useful. Other people found it useful too, and […]

Strategies Against Systems

There is one other circumstance, peculiar to human conduct, which stands in the way of successful social prediction and planning. Public predictions of future social developments are frequently not sustained precisely because the prediction has become a new element in the concrete situation, thus tending to change the initial course of developments. This is not true […]

The Deployment Age

A couple of weeks ago James Gross, co-founder of Percolate, had me speak at their Transition conference. I talked about Carlota Perez, her theories, and the transition to the deployment period that we are currently undergoing. The talk, as I remember it, (plus some stuff I had to cut for time) is below. I’ve also added some additional […]